Tuesday, September 29
Skinners’ Hall, London
Prediction Markets Move Into the Institutional Stack
Prediction markets have generally been left out of most trading strategies, but that is rapidly changing. Over the past year, event contracts have become increasingly popular and are starting to be integrated into the systems that global institutions already use.
What Prediction Markets Actually Do
A prediction market lets participants trade contracts that pay out on a yes or no question about a real-world outcome, from election results to the weather to an economic data release. As people buy and sell, the price of each contract settles at a level that reflects the crowd’s collective expectation of that event happening. The market therefore turns a dispersed set of opinions into a single, live probability.
The best-known example came at the end of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. While traditional media and public opinion polls showed an almost dead-even race, prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket leaned toward Trump earlier and more decisively than the polls did. It is one of many cases in which these markets identified a shift before conventional measures did.
That is where the economic value sits. Businesses and traders spend a great deal of effort minimizing risk and reducing uncertainty, and prediction markets give them a new tool to do it. Instead of hedging exposure to an event indirectly, through a proxy instrument that only partly tracks what they care about, a trader can now take a position on the event itself. The outcome becomes something you can price and trade directly.
Why Institutions Are Paying Attention Now
As competition intensifies, trading venues and institutions need to respond to the changing demand from their existing and potential clients. Firms have made it clear they want direct access to event contracts with the same tools they already use. They want clean data, fast execution and the ability to fold these instruments into existing risk workflows.
This strong interest is a signal that event contracts are being treated as a genuine asset class, not just as a source of information.
Where TT Fits
At TT, we don’t wait for the future, we build it. That is why we recently announced our plan to connect to Kalshi, the world’s largest U.S. federally regulated prediction market. Building on this momentum, we just announced this week that we are expanding our reach and will support connectivity to OG.com, Crypto.com’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse.
These new partnerships mark just the beginning of our broader strategy in prediction markets, with additional venue integrations coming to the platform in the near future.
It’s not only access that matters, but how this access is delivered. Clients trading prediction markets through TT will have access to the platform’s existing execution and algorithmic trading toolset, along with the same charting, spreading and analytics they are already familiar with, rather than starting from zero in a new system. In this sense, prediction markets become part of TT’s multi-asset workflow.
Looking Ahead
Prediction markets are still finding their place in the financial landscape, and the regulatory picture continues to evolve. But the direction is clear. As financial decision makers increasingly draw on the probabilities these markets produce, event contracts will play a larger role in how firms read and hedge the future. Our aim is to continually expand venue access so our clients can act on that shift with the tools they already trust.
For more information about prediction market access through TT, get in touch through our contact page.